Today is 110 market days from the 3/23 low.
Check for consistent ranking within the past 21 days for new commitments OR Jack’s 5-10 day rule as he explained in the session on 8-25.
Speculation pushed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes to new highs while the majority of issues traded lower. HFTs were active though I saw little DP activity in SPY. Momentum scans were so low they reveal little. Weekly volume continues falling since the March low which is not supportive of new highs. Cumulative on-balance volume does support the up-trend.
Negative numbers have been declining over the past one and a half hours.
I expect the three major indices to trade within range maintaining an upward bias.
Selling bonds to buy equities suggest the marginal buyers are ignoring over bought territory pushing S&P towards 3550. Trying to find a reason for NFLX to rise 11%, FB up 8% and CRM gaining 26% in a single session without major news suggest reason has “Gone with the Wind.” Perhaps new investors have been reading Ps 40:2-3 – “He also brought me out of a horrible pit…. He has put a new song in my mouth.”
Futures are negative with uncertainty over Chairman Powell’s update later today.
Prior to the Fed’s comments today, expectation is for a policy of near zero interest rates for five years which is not an optimistic view of prospects for economic recovery.
US$ continued downward as all major CBs are expected to extend loose money policies which should support an extended bull market environment.
Massive debt expansion to buy survivability during the downturn will be manageable if economic recovery continues since original expectations were worse than current conditions.
Gasoline demand is increasing, reducing inventories which is positive. Consumers are becoming increasingly mobile indicating social fears must be declining. Increased demand in summer is normal but the energy sector remains troubled.
This chart is self-explanatory. Value isn’t working anywhere.
China continues is two-faced negotiations. After this week’s “positive” meeting, it tweaks the Administration by launching a couple ballistic missiles into the S. China Sea. U.S. adds 24 more firms subject to sanctions.
NYC continues facing unintended consequences of social distancing as its MTA expects to cut service by 40% due to reduced ridership and to increase fares by 5%. Clearly, the Governor and Mayor must have taken a non-traditional economics course.
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